Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.
Role
SAGE is responsible for ensuring that timely and coordinated scientific advice is made available to decision makers to support UK cross-government decisions in the Cabinet Office Briefing Room (COBR). The advice provided by SAGE does not represent official government policy.
.
Participants
The group is chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance and co-chaired by the Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and includes experts from within government and leading specialists from the fields of healthcare and academia.
View the full list of participants of SAGE and related sub-groups.
Expert groups
SAGE relies on external science advice and on advice from expert groups. During COVID-19 this includes the:
- New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG)
- Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) (Department for Health and Social Care)
- Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B)
These groups consider the scientific evidence and feed in their consensus conclusions to SAGE.
Scientific evidence supporting the government response to COVID-19
The national and global response to the spread of COVID-19 continues to develop quickly and our knowledge of the virus is growing. These statements and accompanying evidence demonstrate how our understanding of COVID-19 has evolved as new data has emerged.
The evidence was often complied very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The papers presented here are the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and their conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in these papers may have been superseded at a later date.
Dynamic reports from the COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) have been provided to SAGE to highlight ongoing information and evidence about COVID-19 for a large sample of hospitalised UK patients. As the reports are dynamic, the data included and analyses change over time and in each report. Particularly for early reports, there may be a risk of misinterpretation – it is important that any potential signals have been confirmed as robust and not taken out of context. A peer reviewed publication is forthcoming which reports summary results between 6 February and 19 April 2020. A preprint is currently available at: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1.full.pdf
This page will be updated on a regular basis with the latest available evidence provided to SAGE.
Introduction to the evidence
R number
SAGE meeting papers
.
Meeting 4, 4 February 2020
Meeting 6, 11 February 2020
Meeting 8, 18 February 2020
Meeting 9, 20 February 2020
Meeting 10, 25 February 2020
Meeting 11, 27 February 2020
Meeting 12, 3 March 2020
Meeting 13, 5 March 2020
Meeting 14, 10 March 2020
Meeting 15, 13 March 2020
Meeting 16, 16 March 2020
Meeting 17, 18 March 2020
Meeting 18, 23 March 2020
Meeting 19, 26 March 2020
Meeting 21, 31 March 2020
Meeting 22, 2 April 2020
Material was redacted from the first document in accordance with the standard principles governing Freedom of Information when it was first published. However Sir Patrick Vallance and No10 agree that such SAGE documents relating to COVID-19 should be published in full, in the interests of maximum transparency, with exceptions only for matters relating to national security.
Meeting 23, 7 April 2020
Meeting 24, 9 April 2020
Meeting 25, 14 April 2020
Meeting 26, 16 April 2020
Meeting 27, 21 April 2020
Meeting 28, 23 April 2020
Meeting 29, 28 April 2020
Meeting 30, 30 April 2020
Meeting 31, 1 May
Meeting 33, 5 May 2020
Meeting 34, 7 May 2020
Meeting 35, 12 May 2020
Meeting 36, 14 May 2020
SPI-B background papers
These papers were produced by SPI-B participants to aid early discussions and understanding of the group.
Modelling inputs
Emerging evidence about COVID-19
- Emergence of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19); A protocol for extending surveillance used by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE)
- Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
- Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
- Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
- Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease
- Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions
- Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices
- A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
- The efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
Reports from Imperial College London
- Epidemic size estimation in Wuhan City
- Epidemic size estimation in Wuhan City - update
- Transmissibility of COVID-19
- Severity of COVID-19
- Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
- Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
- Infection prevalence estimated from repatriation flights
- Symptom progression of COVID-19