Republished from Times Online

The UK, US, France, Germany to bring security council resolution by June

“Stanislas de Laboulaye, Michael Schaefer, Nick Burns, Robert Cooper.

Nick, Michael and I had a word yesterday about how to handle the E3+3 meeting in New York on Monday. We agreed that we would need to have a shared concept of what would happen in the Security Council after the period specified by the proposed Presidential Statement. I agreed to circulate a short paper which we might use as a sort of speaking note with the Russians and Chinese. This is attached.

Implicit in the paper is a recognition that we are not going to bring the Russians and Chinese to accept significant sanctions over the coming months, certainly not without further efforts to bring the Iranians around.

Kislyak might argue that those diplomatic efforts should start straightaway after a Presidential Statement is adopted. Our own assessment here is that the Iranians will not feel under much pressure from PRST on its own, and they will need to know that more serious measures are likely. This means putting the Iran dossier onto a Chapter VII basis. We may also need to remove one of the Iranian arguments that the suspension called for is ‘voluntary’. We could do both by making the voluntary suspension a mandatory requirement to the Security Council, in a Resolution we would aim to adopt I, say, early May.

In return for the Russians and Chinese agreeing to this, we would then want to put together a package that could be presented to the Iranians as a new proposal. Ideally this would have the explicit backing of Russia, China and the United States as well as the E3, though Nick will want to consider the scope of presenting this in that way. Our thought is that we would need to finalise this during June, and the obvious occasion to do so would be in the margins of the G8 Foreign Ministers’ meeting. The period running up to the G8 Summit will be when our influence on Russia will be at its maximum, and we need to plan accordingly.

In parallel with agreeing a new proposal, we will also want to bind Russia and China into agreeing to further measures that will be taken by the Security Council should the Iranians fail to engage positively. That would be reflected in Step Four. We would not, at this stage, want to be explicit about what would be involved then – there will need to be extensive negotiations on that in May/June.

I am not sure how far we will get on Monday. The prospect of an E3+3 Ministerial in Berlin on 30 March would give Kislyak the opportunity to push this down the road by ten days. But I suspect we will need a meeting at Ministerial level anyway to get agreement to this sort of approach, including an early Chapter VII Resolution.

We have earmarked a conference call between the five of us on Friday afternoon. Can I suggest that we do this at 1530 GMT. We will need to be circumspect on an open line, but as we are not planning to hand a paper over to the Russians and Chinese, I don’t think we need to go into detailed drafting. What we need is agreement on the concepts.

Looking forward to seeing you all in New York on Monday.”

Iran Gets 30 Days to Clear Nuke Suspicions

By EDITH M. LEDERER, Associated Press - 30 March 2006 - UNITED NATIONS - The U.N. Security Council gave Iran 30 days to clear up suspicions that it is seeking nuclear weapons, and key members turned their focus on what to do if Iran refuses to suspend uranium enrichment and allow more intrusive inspections.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Berlin on Thursday for discussions between the five permanent council members - the United States, Russia, China Britain and France - plus Germany, on how much and what kind of pressure to exert on Iran if it refuses to comply.

After three weeks of intense negotiations, the 15-member Security Council approved a statement Wednesday asking the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to report back in 30 days on Iran's compliance with demands to stop enriching uranium.

The statement, made available to The Associated Press, takes into account Russian and Chinese reservations about too much toughness, while meeting U.S., French and British calls for keeping the pressure on Tehran.

It "notes with serious concern Iran's decision to resume enrichment-related activities ... and to suspend cooperation with the IAEA under the additional protocol" - an agreement allowing agency inspectors wide access on short notice to Iran's nuclear program.

The statement also calls on Iran to return to "full and sustained suspension of all enrichment-related ... activities."

Rice called the statement an "important diplomatic step" that showed the international community's concern about Iran. Before meeting with her counterparts, she was consulting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"We are very close today to taking the first major step in the Security Council to deal with Iran's nearly 20-year-old clandestine nuclear weapons program," John Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said in New York. "It sends an unmistakable message to Iran that its efforts to deny the obvious fact of what it's doing are not going to be sufficient."

Iran remained defiant, maintaining its right to nuclear power but insisting that it had no intention of seeking weapons of mass destruction.

On Thursday, Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki condemned "unjustified propaganda" about its peaceful nuclear program. "Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and has never diverted towards prohibited activities," Mottaki told the 65-nation Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. But, he added, Iran is willing to continue talks with the IAEA over its nuclear program. "We are willing to continue with negotiations and also continue with our sincere and constructive cooperation with the agency," Mottaki told reporters after the conference session. "Our cooperation with the agency will continue."

Security Council members described the statement, while not legally binding, as a first step to pressure Iran to make clear its program is for peaceful purposes. It also calls on Iran to ratify the IAEA's additional protocol, which allows unannounced inspections.

The Security Council could eventually impose economic sanctions, though Russia and China say they oppose such tough measures.

The Europeans initially proposed a much stronger statement but accepted a milder one to secure the support of Russia and China. Western countries agreed to drop language that proliferation "constitutes a threat to international peace and security." Also gone is a mention that the council is specifically charged under the U.N. charter with addressing such threats.

Russia and China had opposed that language because they wanted nothing in the statement that could automatically trigger council action after 30 days. "For the time being we have suspicions," Russia's U.N. Ambassador Andrey Denisov said. "So from that point of view, it is like a ladder. If you want to climb up, you must step on the first step, and then the second, and not try to leap."

The West has refused to rule out sanctions, and U.S. officials have said the threat of military action must also remain on the table.

Negotiations between Iran and France, Germany and Britain collapsed in August after Tehran rejected a package of incentives offered in return for a permanent end to uranium enrichment. Its moves to develop full-blown enrichment capabilities led the IAEA's board to ask for Security Council involvement.

Beyond giving formal blessings for the council statement - and using it to reflect a show of unity - Rice and the ministers from France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany were not likely to accomplish much at Thursday's meeting formally set to last only 90 minutes. While the officials were expected to touch on ways to engage Iran diplomatically, major differences persist on that approach.

In a confidential letter earlier this month, Britain argued for including the other permanent Security Council members in talks with Iran. In exchange, they hoped to secure Russian and Chinese support for increasing pressure on Iran through binding council resolutions that could be enforced militarily. A senior European official said on condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to speak to the media that Britain's "proposal is not off the table." But a U.S. official, who also requested anonymity for the same reason, said Washington opposed including more countries in the negotiations.

"From the beginning, our position has been that we don't think it's helpful to have other countries joining the EU-3 in the dialogue because it has the potential of diluting the Western position on Iran," he said.

The U.S. official did not, however, rule out direct discussions between the United States and Iran, suggesting they could be a spinoff of the U.S. administration's decision earlier this month to talk to Iran about Iraq after a nearly three-decade break in diplomatic ties.

The U.S. administration has publicly emphasized those talks would not touch on the nuclear issue. But the official said that "if some understanding emerges from those discussions, then the one side or the other might say, 'Let's have some follow-up.'" - news.yahoo.com

Iran Defiantly Rejects New U.N. Demands

By GEORGE JAHN Mar 30, Associated Press Writer BERLIN (AP) --

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran on Thursday the "international community is united" in the dispute over its nuclear program, but a Tehran envoy defiantly rejected a U.N. call to reimpose a freeze on uranium enrichment. Rice spoke after a meeting in Berlin among diplomats from the five veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany over ways to press Iran to stop enriching uranium, which can be used for weapons. Iran says its program is peaceful.

The meeting follows agreement Wednesday by the 15-member Security Council to ask the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to report back in 30 days on Iran's compliance with demands to stop enriching uranium.

In Vienna, Iran's chief representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told The Associated Press that "it is impossible to go back to suspension." "This enrichment matter is not reversible," Soltanieh said.

Rice said the Berlin meeting sends "a very strong signal to Iran that the international community is united." But the comments hinted at the strains in the anti-Iran alliance, with the Chinese saying that "only peaceful means" must be used to push Tehran. The United States and Britain used tougher rhetoric.

British Foreign Minister Jack Straw said Iran had "miscalculated." "The onus is on Iran to show the international community that its program is entirely for civil purposes and for no other," Straw said. "We have shown very great patience with Iran. They in turn have miscalculated. "They thought the international community would be divided on this issue but in fact they have become more and more united," he added.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the "sole solution" to the nuclear standoff "will be based on the work of the IAEA," and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo said the issue "can only be resolved through peaceful means."

Wednesday's statement from the Security Council took into account the Russian and Chinese reservations about too much toughness, while meeting U.S., French and British calls for keeping the pressure on Tehran. - Associated Press

Three Quakes in Iran Kill at Least 66

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press 31 March 2006 - TEHRAN, Iran -

Three strong earthquakes and several aftershocks reduced villages to rubble in western Iran early Friday, killing at least 66 people and injuring about 1,200 others, officials said.

At least 13 tremors jolted the mountainous region throughout the night, Tehran University's Geophysics Institute said.

The U.S. Geological Survey reported a 5.7 magnitude quake shortly before 5 a.m. local time., followed by a 4.7 magnitude aftershock about 15 minutes later. The area had been hit by a 4.7-magnitude quake the day before, according to the USGS, which monitors earthquakes around the world.

The quakes were centered near Boroujerd and Doroud, two industrial cities about 210 miles southwest of Tehran, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

The regional head of emergency response, Ali Barani, said about 200 villages were damaged, some flattened. Barani said hospitals in Doroud and Boroujerd were full to their capacity.

State-run television said a total of 66 bodies had been recovered from houses destroyed in Silakhor, a region north of Doroud. The broadcast said 1,200 people were injured.

Most people had been sleeping. They ran into the streets in panic and refused to return to their homes.

"We are afraid to get back home. I spent the night with my family and guests in open space last night," Doroud resident Mahmoud Chaharmiri told The Associated Press by telephone.

Television showed survivors standing next to their destroyed houses in villages north of Doroud. The ground was strewn with the carcasses of sheep and goats killed by the quake.

Such quakes have killed thousands of Iranians in the past, especially in the countryside where construction is often flimsy with many houses built of mud bricks. But initial reports suggested the devastation was not so widespread this time. Officials called on doctors and nurses on leave to get back to work. Iranians are celebrating Nowruz, or new year, and most government offices are closed and their staff on holiday.

Barani told IRNA rescue teams had been sent to the region. He said survivors were in urgent need of blankets, tents and food.

In February 2005, a 6.4-magnitude quake in southern Iran killed 612 people and injured more than 1,400. A magnitude 6.6 quake flattened the historic southeastern city of Bam in the same region in December 2003, killing 26,000 people. Iran is located on seismic fault lines and is prone to earthquakes. On average, it experiences at least one slight earthquake every day. - /news.yahoo.com

Iran terror response seen to US strike: Wash Post

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iran would respond to U.S. military strikes against its nuclear sites with global attacks by intelligence operatives and Hezbollah teams, The Washington Post reported in an article on its Web site on Saturday, citing unnamed "intelligence and terrorism experts."

Iran would attack U.S. targets in Iraq and there is "growing consensus that Iran's agents would target civilians in the United States, Europe and elsewhere," The Post said.

"U.S. officials would not discuss what evidence they have indicating Iran would undertake terrorist action," it said.

But the article quoted one "senior official" as saying that the matter is "a huge issue" and another saying it "is consuming a lot of time" in the U.S. intelligence apparatus.

Intelligence officials declined to say whether they have detected "preparatory measures" by Iran's foreign-based operatives, such as more surveillance, counter-surveillance or message traffic, The Post said.

The Post article comes amid increased international tension over Iran's nuclear program, which some nations say is aimed at building atomic bombs. Iran says the program is civilian. - reuters

UK Government in secret talks about strike against Iran

By Sean Rayment, Defence Correspondent (Filed: 02/04/2006)

The Government is to hold secret talks with defence chiefs tomorrow to discuss possible military strikes against Iran. A high-level meeting will take place in the Ministry of Defence at which senior defence chiefs and government officials will consider the consequences of an attack on Iran. It is believed that an American-led attack, designed to destroy Iran's ability to develop a nuclear bomb, is "inevitable" if Teheran's leaders fail to comply with United Nations demands to freeze their uranium enrichment programme.

Tomorrow's meeting will be attended by Gen Sir Michael Walker, the chief of the defence staff, Lt Gen Andrew Ridgway, the chief of defence intelligence and Maj Gen Bill Rollo, the assistant chief of the general staff, together with officials from the Foreign Office and Downing Street.

The International Atomic Energy Authority, the nuclear watchdog, believes that much of Iran's programme is now devoted to uranium enrichment and plutonium separation, technologies that could provide material for nuclear bombs to be developed in the next three years.

The United States government is hopeful that the military operation will be a multinational mission, but defence chiefs believe that the Bush administration is prepared to launch the attack on its own or with the assistance of Israel, if there is little international support. British military chiefs believe an attack would be limited to a series of air strikes against nuclear plants - a land assault is not being considered at the moment.

But confirmation that Britain has started contingency planning will undermine the claim last month by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, that a military attack against Iran was "inconceivable".

Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, insisted, during a visit to Blackburn yesterday, that all negotiating options - including the use of force - remained open in an attempt to resolve the crisis.

Tactical Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from US navy ships and submarines in the Gulf would, it is believed, target Iran's air defence systems at the nuclear installations. That would enable attacks by B2 stealth bombers equipped with eight 4,500lb enhanced BLU-28 satellite-guided bunker-busting bombs, flying from Diego Garcia, the isolated US Navy base in the Indian Ocean, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Whiteman USAF base in Missouri. It is understood that any direct British involvement in an attack would be limited but may extend to the use of the RAF's highly secret airborne early warning aircraft.

At the centre of the crisis is Washington's fear that an Iranian nuclear weapon could be used against Israel or US forces in the region, such as the American air base at Incirlik in Turkey.

The UN also believes that the production of a bomb could also lead to further destabilisation in the Middle East, which would result in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia all developing nuclear weapons programmes.

A senior Foreign Office source said: "Monday's meeting will set out to address the consequences for Britain in the event of an attack against Iran. The CDS [chiefs of defence staff] will want to know what the impact will be on British interests in Iraq and Afghanistan which both border Iran. The CDS will then brief the Prime Minister and the Cabinet on their conclusions in the next few days. "If Iran makes another strategic mistake, such as ignoring demands by the UN or future resolutions, then the thinking among the chiefs is that military action could be taken to bring an end to the crisis. The belief in some areas of Whitehall is that an attack is now all but inevitable.

There will be no invasion of Iran but the nuclear sites will be destroyed. This is not something that will happen imminently, maybe this year, maybe next year. Jack Straw is making exactly the same noises that the Government did in March 2003 when it spoke about the likelihood of a war in Iraq.

"Then the Government said the war was neither inevitable or imminent and then attacked."

The source said that the Israeli attack against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 proved that a limited operation was the best military option. The Israeli air force launched raids against the plant, which intelligence suggested was being used to develop a nuclear bomb for use against Israel.

Military chiefs also plan tomorrow to discuss fears that an attack within Iran will "unhinge" southern Iraq - where British troops are based - an area mainly populated by Shia Muslims who have strong political and religious links to Iran. They are concerned that this could delay any withdrawal of troops this year or next. There could also be consequences for British and US troops in Afghanistan, which borders Iran.

The MoD meeting will address the economic issues that could arise if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president - who became the subject of international condemnation last year when he called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" - cuts off oil supplies to the West in reprisal.

There are thought to be at least eight known sites within Iran involved in the production of nuclear materials, although it is generally accepted that there are many more secret installations. Iran has successfully tested a Fajr-3 missile that can reach Israel, avoiding radar and hitting several targets using multiple warheads, its military has confirmed. - telegraph.co.uk

Iran 'can now defend against invasion'

04/04/2006 - A top Iranian military official today said the country can now defend against any invasion originating from outside the region - a clear reference to the United States - as it tested a second new radar-avoiding missile.

The new surface-to-sea missile is equipped with remote-control and searching systems, state-run television reported. It said the new missile, called Kowsar after the name of a river in paradise, was a medium-range weapon that Iran had the capability to mass-produce. It also asserted that the Kowsar's guidance system could not be scrambled, and that it had been designed to sink ships.

Shortly after the test, the chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, warned that Iran was now able to "confront any extra-regional invasion," referring to the United States without mentioning it by name.

"The missile command of the Guards' naval force ... via positioning various types of surface-to-sea missiles, is able, while defending the coastlines and islands, to confront any extra-territorial invasion," the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Safavi as saying.

Safavi also called for foreign forces to leave the region.

The US 5th fleet is based in Bahrain, from where it patrols the Gulf.

"Iran wants durable peace in the Persian Gulf and it can't be achieved without foreign forces and those which invaded Iraq leaving (the region)," IRNA quoted Safavi as saying.

Yesterday's test was the latest in a series during war games in the Persian Gulf that the military says are aimed at preparing the country's defences against the United States.

On Friday, the country tested the Fajr-3, a missile that it said can avoid radars and hit several targets simultaneously using multiple warheads. Since the war games began, the country also has tested what it calls two new torpedoes.

The second torpedo was tested in the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Gulf that is a vital corridor for oil supplies. That seemed designed to be a clear warning to the United States that Iran believes it has the capability to disable oil tankers moving through the Gulf, if it should so choose.

The Guards, the elite branch of Iran's military, have been holding their manoeuvres - code-named the Great Prophet - since Friday, touting what they call domestically built technological advances in their armed forces.

But military analysts in Moscow said the high-speed torpedoes tested by Iran this week were likely Russian-built weapons and may have been acquired from China or the ex-Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan. Judging by the fuzzy television pictures showing the tests, the missiles appeared very similar to the Russian-made VA-111 Shkval, the world's fastest known underwater missile, they said. Ruslan Pukhov, an expert with the Centre for Strategic Analysis and Technologies, said that he believed the Shkval technology was too sophisticated for the Iranians to produce themselves. Pukhov noted that the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan once had a Soviet top-secret torpedo and naval testing centre located on the remote mountain lake, Issyk Kul. He said in the mid-1990s, in the turmoil that followed the Soviet break-up, Kyrgyz authorities had sold Shkvals to the Chinese, a major importer of Iranian oil.

Others experts said it would be easy to gather up sunken torpedoes used in tests in Issyk Kul and develop the technology with the help of Russian scientists who had gone to Iran in search of well-paying jobs.

"(Iran's) technology is developing very fast. They could get enough brains and the funds to build them on their own," said Vadim Kozyulin, an arms expert with the PIR Center, an independent Moscow arms proliferation think tank.

Others have questioned just how radar-evading the missiles are. Iran's radars are not as advanced as those of Israel, for example - meaning that perhaps the new weapons can avoid the radar that Iran has access to, but not more advanced types.

The United States said - after the second torpedo test - that while Iran may have made "some strides" in its military, it is likely to be exaggerating its capabilities.

Nevertheless, the country has made clear it aims to send a message of strength to the United States amid heightened tensions over Iran's nuclear program.

On Tuesday, state-run television also said the elite Revolutionary Guards had tested what it called a "super modern flying boat" capable of evading radar. TV showed a brief clip of the boat's launch. "Due to its advanced design, no radar at sea or in the air can detect it. It can lift out of the water," the television said. It said the boat was "all Iranian-made and can launch missiles with precise targeting while moving."

The television showed the boat, looking like an aircraft, taking off from the sea and flying low over the surface of the water. It said the craft can fly with a speed of 100 nautical miles per hour. Iran said the torpedo tests were conducted on Sunday and Monday. The torpedo - called a "Hoot," or "whale" - is able to move at up to 223 mph, too fast for any enemy ship to elude. Iran has routinely held war games over the past two decades to improve its combat readiness and test locally made equipment such as missiles, tanks and armoured personnel carriers.

Iran launched an arms development program during its 1980-88 war with Iraq to compensate for a US weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armoured personnel carriers, missiles and a fighter plane. - IOL

Iran unveils secret super-weapons to scare the whole world

05.04.2006 Source: Pravda

Whilst Teheran’s envoys try to convince the whole world that Iranian atomic energy is the most peaceful on the planet, and analysts guess whether Iran or Israel will be the first to try to erase the other from the political map, the Iranian military decided to flex its muscles somewhat. Last Friday large-scale naval exercises known as “The Great Prophet” began in the region of the Persian and Oman Gulfs, in which more than 17 thousand soldiers, about 1500 battleships, support aircraft, airborne interceptors, bombers, helicopters and missile installations were employed. As Iranian naval commander Morteza Safari declared, “These manoeuvres are being carried out to act as a counter-measure in the psychological war which has been unleashed against Iran, and to increase the defense capabilities of our army”.

Since then not a day has passed without state television IRI reporting on the testing of the latest type of super-weapon which has been developed by local inventors. So Tuesday’s main surprise was the mysterious “flying ghost-ship”. According to official sources, the way the ship’s body has been constructed means that it cannot be detected by sea and air-based radar systems. The ship itself is capable of rising above the surface of the water and is armed with missiles which are able to home in on their target with great accuracy even while the ship is moving. It is claimed that this technological miracle was developed and constructed from start to finish in Iran.

Russian military experts believe that this patchy description does not conceal a ship lying on an air cushion, but a military aerofoil boat – a flying machine capable of rising up into the air due to the so-called “surface effect” which involves streamlining the surface of the machine whilst in motion in close contact to the surface of the water. Thanks to this effect aerofoil boats have a significantly larger cargo-carrying capacity than an ordinary aeroplane. There was a similar type of machine in the Soviet naval forces, called the “Eaglet”.

Meanwhile, on Sunday Teheran announced the successful tests of the world's quickest torpedo, capable of reaching speeds of over 100 m/sec. As the Iranian military declared, not a single army in the world is able to defend itself against this underwater missile. However, it soon emerged that this weapon is not particularly new, and most importantly, in no way originated in Iran. International experts admitted that the torpedo was developed in the Soviet Union – it is called “Tornado” and does indeed travel at extremely high speeds, but is accurate only up to a range of 7km, which is more often than not insufficient for the demands of modern military action.

According to one version, Iran was able to get hold of the “Tornado” from Kyrgyzstan – it was there that these torpedoes were tested, on Lake Issyk-Kul, during Soviet times. After the Union’s collapse, experts think that Kyrgyzstan might have sold armaments to China, which in turn supplied them to Iran. However, Kanybek Tabaldiev, a senior representative of the Kirghiz company which produces torpedoes and other military technology, categorically denied the involvement of the Kirghiz military-industrial complex in selling modern weapons technology to Iran.