Flashback: Velvet Revolution in Georgia?

MUST READ : Georgia Train and Equip program (GTEP)

Georgia lies at the heart of the Silk Road, the ancient crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Located on the Black Sea, the republic shares land borders with Russia, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It is an important new nation with aspirations of becoming an international business and industrial transit hub. In the Republic of Georgia, the news cameras focus mostly on Russian accusations that the republic harbors Chechen rebels on their mountain border.

The Georgians claimed their independence from Russia in 1992. Unemployment is still high. But Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze has a vision for his country -- to make it a conduit for trade and one of the most important transit countries in the world. Major road, railway, and pipeline routes between Asia and Europe cross its borders. A new pipeline is planned from the oil-rich Caspian Sea basin through Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. But Georgia needs modernization before it can become a conduit for trade.

On 29 April 2002 the Department of Defense announced the beginning of the Georgia Train and Equip program (GTEP). This program implements President Bush's decision to respond to Government of Georgia's request for assistance to enhance its counter-terrorism capabilities and address the situation in the Pankisi Gorge. This effort will complement other counter-terrorism efforts around the globe and will increase stability in the Caucasus. The 20-month, $64-million plan, involving a maximum of 150 US soldiers, is expected to be duplicated in 20 other countries.

A flexible, time-phased training initiative, GTEP builds upon the strong military-to-military relationship developed between the two countries since the end of the Cold War, and further underscores U.S. support for Georgia's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.

Under the Georgia Border Security and Law Enforcement (GBSLE) program, the US has provided the Georgian border guard, customs, MOD, and other border security and law enforcement agencies with communications equipment, vehicles and helicopters with spares/repair parts for transport and patrol, surveillance and detection equipment, computers for automation of applications, licensing and regulatory systems, and forensics laboratory assistance. In mid-2002 the US Army Corps of Engineers' Europe District helped the Georgian State Frontier Defense Department celebrate its 10th anniversary in grand style. The opening of a renovated aviation maintenance facility on the Alekseevsk airbase tarmac, beside the Tbilisi commercial airport, marked a significant improvement for the upkeep of the Georgian (Russia) border guard's Mi-8 and Mi-2 helicopters. The $3.2 million renovation of the hangar and an accompanying warehouse were two initial projects completed in 2002 under the Georgia Border Security and Law Enforcement assistance program funded by the U.S. government, and coordinated by the U.S. Customs Service. The facility supports maintenance of aviation assets of the Georgian border guard and its rapid reaction group based in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital.

Selected members of SOCEUR will conduct the GTEP. A SOCEUR site survey team of approximately 20 people departed for Georgia on 29 April 2002 to coordinate GTEP logistical requirements. Included in the team are logistics, contracting, and communications personnel. Once this groundwork is accomplished, the main body of instructors will arrive, and the initial program of instruction will begin shortly thereafter.

The initial program will consist of command center staff training for members of the Georgian Ministry of Defense as well as staff training for units of the Land Forces Command. Border Guards and other Georgian security agencies will be included to ensure interoperability among Georgia's security forces. The program's goal is to build strong and effective staff organizations capable of creating and sustaining standardized operating procedures, training plans, operational plans, and a property accounting system. The curriculum will consist of performance-oriented training and practical exercises similar to those taught at the National Defense University, Joint Forces Command, and U.S. Army War College. Staff training is designed to last approximately 70 days and will be conducted in a small group, classroom setting.

In addition to staff training, tactical training will be provided sequentially and will consist of approximately 100 days per unit. The goal of the tactical program is to instruct Georgian battalions in light infantry tactics, to include platoon-level offensive and defensive operations and basic airmobile tactics. The curriculum for the tactics training will include basic individual skills, such as combat lifesaver, radio operator procedures, land navigation, and human rights education. It will also include individual combat skills, such as rifle marksmanship, individual movement techniques, and squad and platoon tactics.

During GTEP, military equipment is slated for transfer to Georgia. Equipment includes uniform items, small arms and ammunition, communications gear, training gear, medical gear, fuel, and construction materiel.

After nine-months, about 15 December 2002, the Operation Enduring Freedom mission in the former-Soviet republic of Georgia transitioned from U.S. Army Special Forces to U.S. Marines.

Although the leadership and trainers will change, the end result is that the GTEP mission remains the same -- enhancing the capability of selected Georgian military units to provide stability and security to the citizens of Georgia and the Caucasus region.

This was followed by unit level tactical training for the Georgian commando battalion, which will conclude with a graduation ceremony Dec. 15. During these initial nine months, Special Operations Command Europe had oversight of the arrival of individual soldier and unit-level equipment, established property accountability procedures, and upgraded selected Georgian facilities to include the renovation of three GTEP classrooms and two troop barracks.

Marines, under the operational control of U.S. Marine Forces Europe, provide training for selected units, to include, a light infantry battalion and a mechanized company team. They also have oversight for the remaining equipment and facilities upgrades. The Marines took command on Dec 15, 2002, the first phase of GTEP they conducted began in early February 2003.

In mid-November 2003 Russia indicated it might try to mediate the political crisis in the former Soviet republic of Georgia along with two of Georgia's neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The move came after nearly two weeks of demonstrations calling on President Eduard Shevardnadze to resign. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Valery Loshchinin says Moscow may try to mediate between the opposing factions in Georgia, telling reporters that Russia "cannot be indifferent" to what happens there. The political crisis is being watched closely by western countries because of the impact unrest in Georgia can have on the volatile Caucasus Mountain region as a whole.

Georgia's "Rose Revolution" was planned and centrally coordinated by the US government. The 24 November 2003 Wall Street Journal credited the fall of Eduard Shevardnadze's regime to the operations of "a raft of non-governmental organizations . . . supported by American and other Western foundations." According to the Journal, the NGOs had "spawned a class of young, English-speaking intellectuals hungry for pro-Western reforms" who laid the groundwork for a bloodless coup. Shevardnadze had switched sides, and was backed by the Russians. Richard Miles, the US ambassador to Georgia, was the chief of mission (effectively ambassador) to Yugoslavia from 1996 to 1999, and laid to groundwork to get rid of Milosevic in 2000.

Orange-clad supporters of Viktor Yushchenko gather in Independence Square in Kiev.

Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" of 2004-2005 was a series of protests and political events that took place throughout the country in response to allegations of massive corruption, voter intimidation and direct electoral fraud during Ukraine's Presidential Run-off Election of November 21, 2004, as reported by numerous domestic and foreign observers. The November 21, 2004 run-off was mandated by Ukrainian law because, according to the official results of the presidential election held on October 31, 2004, no candidate carried the absolute majority of the vote cast (50 % plus 1 vote), a case where a run-off between two top candidates with the highest number of votes was specifically required by the law. The winner of the run-off was to become the country's third president since its 1991 independence following the demise of the Soviet Union.

Orange ribbon, a symbol of solidarity with Yushchenko's movement in Ukraine

Orange was adopted by the protesters as the official color of the movement because it was the predominant color in opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko's election campaign during his run for president. The symbol of solidarity with Yushchenko's movement in Ukraine is an orange ribbon or a flag bearing his "Tak! (Yes!) Yushchenko!" slogan.

Sometimes called the Chestnut Revolution due to the abundance of chestnut trees in Kiev — the capital city of Ukraine and center of the revolution where a large 24-hour tent city was set up by Yushchenko supporters —the action was highlighted by a series of nationwide protests, sit-ins, and planned general strikes, organized by supporters of opposition candidate Yushchenko following the disputed results of the November 21 run-off election.

Due in large part to the movement's efforts, the results of the original run-off were annulled and a second run-off election was ordered by Ukraine's Supreme Court for December 26, 2004. Under intense international scrutiny, the official results of the second run-off proved to be virtually problem-free, legally valid and clearly in Yuschenko's favor. He was declared the official winner and with his inauguration on January 23, 2005 in Kiev, the Orange Revolution reached its successful and peaceful conclusion. - Wikipedia

Ex-minister found dead hours before questioning

A leading Ukrainian politician was found dead at his home today, hours before he was due to be questioned about his part in ordering the murder of an investigative journalist.

Yuriy Kravchenko was Ukraine's Interior Minister in 2000, at the time that reporter Georgiy Gongadze was abducted, decapitated and his headless body buried in the woods near Kiev. His head has never been found.

Today Mr Kravchenko was due to answer questions about a secretly taped conversation about Mr Gongadze, in which the then Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma is heard ordering ordering Mr Kravchenko to "drive him out, throw (him) out, give him to the Chechens". The tape was made by Mr Kuchma's bodyguard.

Rather than face the shame of a trial, Mr Kravchenko appears to have taken the easy way out of killing himself. An official report says that his death was suicide.

The implications of the Gongadze murder have shaken the foundations of the Ukraine, and led directly to the Orange Revolution in December in which reformers seized power in the ex-Soviet republic. - Times Online

Kyrgyzstan's friendly revolution

By Ian MacWilliam BBC News, Kyrgyzstan 26 March, 2005

The pictures on the television seems to say it all - statues of Lenin, police with helmets and riot shields, angry protesters storming the president's offices after a disputed election tainted by alleged government vote-rigging. The Kyrgyz have taken on a mostly laid-back attitude to the protests The confrontation had all the elements of a people's power uprising in an authoritarian post-communist state. But Kyrgyzstan is not quite what one expects.

A police spokesman told me politely that the protesters had every right to express their views. I could not help feeling that he was on their side really, along with most of the helmeted police men too.

Late last week, when the protest suddenly grew to a crowd of thousands who then decided to occupy the government's office, the policemen simply stood aside and let them in.

Elsewhere, road-blocking protests became a feature of this opposition movement. Several thousand people would block the road one day, but then they would melt away again the next.

I went to one big protest where people had blocked the main highway to China. I arrived late in the evening as the setting sun lit up a distant backdrop of the snow mountains.

Three of the round felt nomads tents, known as yurts, were set up on the road and speakers addressed the crowd of demonstrators through a megaphone. The horses of rural protesters were tethered to the roadside poplar trees.

"We'll close the road until our demands are met", one of the organisers told me firmly, a gold tooth glinting in the sun.

Ten minutes later, there was a flurry of activity. The yurts were pulled down, the roadway was cleared and the backlog of lorries and other vehicles thundered on their way in a cloud of dust.

"Oh", said the organiser, "the drivers were complaining about us holding up their business so we've decide to picket the [government's offices] instead".

'Clean life'

In the southern town of Jalal-Abad, where the first local opposition council was chosen by a group of several thousand protesters, relations with security forces were also far from unfriendly. It is the anger caused by pervasive corruption and the slow pace of economic change which have fuelled this movement against the president

A couple of hundred demonstrators had occupied the governor's office for more than a week, but they chatted quite happily to militiamen who were also in the grounds keeping an eye on them.

One middle-aged woman told me what in essence what the whole protest was about. "I'm a teacher, but I haven't worked for close to 10 years. The government pays teachers next to nothing, only the rich live well here in Kyrgyzstan," she said. "Once, when we lived as nomads in the mountains, our life was clean, we lived in our yurts and kept our horses and sheep, and there was no corruption then. We want to have a clean life again."

As I walked out of the governor's office, six yurts were set up in the square which were to serve as the rebel council's office. Looking up to the green hillside beyond the town, where the first trees were just breaking into blossom, I noticed the silhouette of six horsemen. I was told they were keeping watch, making sure the militia did not come to break up the protest.

Nomadic spirit

Horses and yurts are everywhere in Kyrgyzstan. The nomadic tradition lives on strongly here. In the villages, children ride home from school on horseback with satchels slung over their shoulders. In the spring, one can stop at a yurt in any number of green valleys to drink kumis - mildly alcoholic fermented mares' milk - which is said to cure any amount of ailments and perks up one's sex life too. It is the nomadic sprit perhaps which sets Kyrgyzstan apart from its more authoritarian neighbours.

When you live in a tent in your own mountain valley and can up sticks at will, you develop a sense of personal freedom that even 70 years of communism cannot eradicate. Despite the impression given by this election crisis, Kyrgyzstan is far from being a repressive Stalinist state.

The country's main problems are really economic more than political - it is the anger caused by pervasive corruption and the slow pace of economic change which have fuelled this movement against the president.

Askar Akayev began his career as a popular liberal reformer, but that was in the early 1990s.

Sitting in a cafe in Jalal-Abad, I asked a local journalist what he thought of the departed president: "Look, he said, we know Askar Akayev is a nice man, but he was in power for 15 years, it was time for him to go." - bbc

THE REVOLUTION IN KYRGYZSTAN - A briefing held Tuesday, April 5th, 2005

Of all the countries in Central Asia, post-revolution Kyrgyzstan seems to be the most likely candidate for closer bilateral ties with China. When Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev abruptly fled Bishkek on March 24, he left a power vacuum that may well be filled with whoever comes up with ready cash. Along with neighboring Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan has struggled with its Soviet economic legacy. Though Kyrgyzstan developed the most liberal foreign investment laws in the region after 1991, with the exception of a few high-profile projects like the Kumtor gold-mining complex, the economy remains heavily dependent on its agrarian sector. Although Kyrgyzstan's democratic image was greatly damaged by the 2002 parliamentary and presidential elections (which were harshly criticized by foreign observers), the current political chaos provides China an unparalleled opportunity to secure its western flank.

For China, the agenda in Kyrgyzstan is simple - acquire access to the country's immense natural resources while blunting the further penetration of U.S. and Russian military power. China has other weapons in its arsenal besides economic clout, most notably the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The Shanghai Five grouping was originally created in 1996 with the signing of the Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions by the heads of states of Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. In 1997 the same countries signed the Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions at a meeting in Moscow. Finally, in June 2001 the Shanghai five (along with Uzbekistan) signed the Declaration of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, praising the role played thus far by the Shanghai Five mechanism and aiming to transform it to a higher level of cooperation. Kyrgyzstan also broadened its contacts with China by opening a consular office in August 2002 in Artush in Xinjiang province. For Kyrgyzstan, the benefits were immediate; three days after the declaration was signed, Kyrgyz Defense Minister Esen Topoev announced that China was giving Kyrgyzstan $970,000 in military aid. - John C.k. Daly

The BBC's Natalia Antelava, in Baku, said many young people wanted to stay overnight after the rally. But opposition leaders called on people to go home after the permitted three hours was up, to avoid confrontation with the police.

However, they also said that they would continue taking to the streets until the results of this election were annulled.

Sardar Jalaloglu, of the Democratic Party, said the opposition would give the government a chance to correct its mistakes.

"If the people's will is not fulfilled... we will go into the streets with a total demand for [the government's] resignation," he told the crowd.

As well as the two re-runs and one recount, President Aliyev has also promised to punish those responsible for fraud.

Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Council of Europe and the US state department said the elections on Sunday did not meet democratic standards.

They said there was serious fraud in the conduct of the poll - including intimidation, stuffing of ballot boxes and violations in counting procedure. Story from BBC NEWS: BBC

Fraud claim mars Belarus election

19 March 2006 - Polls have closed in Belarus where people have been voting in presidential elections, amid opposition claims that the president has rigged the ballot. Several thousand opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko have gathered in a main square in Minsk to protest against alleged electoral fraud. Mr Lukashenko has warned he will crush any attempt to stage a popular revolt. His administration has been widely accused in the West of imposing authoritarian rule. Prior to the vote, scores of opposition supporters were detained and a number of foreign election monitors barred.

Landslide predicted

Leading opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich praised his own campaign as a huge success, adding that he thought he could win if votes were counted honestly. At a news conference on polling day, he repeated calls for a peaceful protest. "I want to say again that I, as a presidential candidate, or representatives of my headquarters, have never called for a revolution. We are categorically against any revolutions," he said.

He was responding to poll figures released just two hours after voting began, which gave Mr Lukashenko more than 80% of the vote. The figures, gathered by polling organisations said to be loyal to the president, gave Mr Milinkevich just 2-3%.

The president has warned he will not tolerate any attempt at a "coup" and has vowed to "break the neck" of anyone who tries to seize power. Police have said that protesters "trying to destabilise the situation" will be treated as terrorists and could face the death penalty.

'Shake off fascism'

A spokesman for the Helsinki Committee, a human rights organisation, told the BBC the Belarussian government's threats to opposition groups could trigger violence.

"We've had similar statements during previous elections... This one is stronger and maybe it's a sign that we should expect violence during Sunday evening," Dzmitry Markusheuski said.

Officials in the ex-Soviet republic have accused foreign countries of backing opposition candidates in the election and a number of foreign monitors and journalists have been denied entry to watch the vote.

Opinion polls were rare during the election campaign but those taken suggested Mr Lukashenko would win the first round even in a fair vote.

Alexander Kozulin, another opposition candidate, told a rally in Minsk on Friday that it was "time for Belarus to awaken and shake off its fascist dictatorship". He stressed, however, that protests should be non-violent.

'No coup'

Mr Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia, is running for his third term in office and points to economic growth and social stability as his main achievements. Alexander Lukashenko dominated the media during the campaign

In a final televised election address on Friday, he warned foreign monitors not to "exceed their remit".

"Observe, draw conclusions, but do not decide for us... what path the Belarussian people should take," he said. Arguing that the presence of four rival candidates was proof of democracy, he warned that political violence would not be tolerated. "I guarantee that there won't be a coup d'etat in this country," he said.

Large-scale street protests led to the fall of leaders in other ex-Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia. Both the European Union and the United States have expressed concern at the Belarussian government's tough stance on political protest. - BBC

Belarus President Lukashenko Calls George W Bush World's Main Terrorist

Created: 19.03.2006 - MosNews

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has called the U.S. President George W. Bush world's biggest terrorist, RIA Novosti said Sunday.

"He is the planet's main terrorist," Lukashenko told the journalists after he cast his ballot at the presidential elections in Minsk. "Look at how he has smashed countries and now he has reached out for presidents," Lukashenko said.

Speaking about the documents concerning his income that had been passed to the U.S. Congress, Lukashenko said that "if Bush has found any money at any accounts, let him have it". He said Bush should first look at his own income.

"He is unable to count his income that comes from oil and wars," Lukashenko said.

When asked what he thought about being called "Europe's last dictator", Lukashenko said, "A dictatorship in the middle of Europe is impossible. Those who say so are stupid people."

Polls opened in Belarus on Sunday in a presidential election where President Alexander Lukashenko seeks re-election against a liberal opposition who vow to contest any attempt to rig the polls, Reuters reported.

Lukashenko, criticised in the West for crushing human rights during his 12 years in power, says his rivals are Western-funded troublemakers and has vowed to "wring the necks" of anyone violating public order. His security service, called the KGB as in Soviet times, says protests will be seen as "terrorism". - mosnews.com

Opposition Protests Belarus Vote Results

By MARIA DANILOVA - March 20th 2006 - Associated Press Writer MINSK, Belarus (AP) --

Thousands of opposition supporters gathered in the center of the Belarus' capital Monday for a second night, hoping their protest would help overturn a presidential election that the U.S. said was flawed by a "climate of fear."

Their numbers were smaller than on election night, and prospects for a Ukraine-style "Orange Revolution" seemed remote. But with overnight temperatures at 28 degrees Fahrenheit, protesters set up a dozen small tents and vowed to turn the demonstration into a round-the-clock presence.

The small but assertive move could rally others to the cause. But it could also prove unacceptable to authorities. Officials put on a show of force, with busloads of riot police fanning out into nearby streets and courtyards and preventing people from approaching the main square.

Police had only a small and unobtrusive presence at the protest the previous night, when an estimated 10,000 people braved the freezing cold and snow to register their outrage after authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko was declared the overwhelming winner of Sunday's elections.

Lukashenko asserted Monday that his foes had failed to topple him in a foreign-backed "revolution."

International observers said the vote fell short of democratic standards. Europe's main human rights organization said it was a "farce," and the United States called for a new election. Lukashenko's main opponent refused to accept the outcome, calling the longtime leader an "illegal, illegitimate president."

However, the leverage of the international community seemed limited, and even many of the protesters appeared to have little appetite for a prolonged vigil and a possibly violent confrontation. The election result, if it stands, would entrench the status of Belarus as one of the least independent of the former Soviet republics.

Some 5,000 gathered in Oktyabrskaya Square in the capital, about half the number that came out Sunday night for a protest whose size was extraordinary in a tightly controlled country where police have cracked down swiftly on unsanctioned opposition gatherings. The diminished crowd suggested to many that the opposition was losing momentum.

"There aren't enough people" a young man hollered into a cell phone amid the din of the rally.

But Alexander Milinkevich, the main opposition presidential candidate and symbolic heart of the protests, called on the demonstrators to gird for a lengthy campaign. He is demanding an election rerun. "Our protest will be long and strong," he vowed. "We will never recognize this election. It's not an election but an anti-constitutional seizure of power." The crowd thinned as hours passed, but many shared a determination to go to the bitter end. "We plan to stay here overnight and to stay until the moment when the vote is pronounced falsified, when the authorities admit this and a new election is announced," said a 21-year-old student who gave his name only as Alexander, one of a dozen people sitting among the tents. A few tents "may not change much, but if people lose their fear they will join us," he said. Milinkevich visited the growing makeshift tent camp, taking sips of tea from a cup he was offered and saying: "We're together."

As the rally was about to begin, busloads of riot police streamed into Karl Marx Street near the square. Security forces in helmets and camouflage uniforms disembarked from the buses, jogged into neighborhood courtyards and prevented pedestrians from walking toward the square.

On the square, a 45-year-old woman who gave her name only as Irina said she was scared about the prospect of bloody police action, but "if Lukashenko stays in power, it will be even worse."

White House press secretary Scott McClellan said the election was flawed by a "climate of fear," and hinted that penalties such as travel restrictions "are things we will look at." "We support the call for a new election," McClellan said. "The United States will continue to stand with the people of Belarus."

A cheer went up from the crowd in the square when a speaker reported the U.S. statement.

By contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday congratulated Lukashenko in a telegram and said the results would help strengthen the alliance of the two former Soviet nations.

The chief electoral official said Monday that Lukashenko, who has ruled with an iron fist since 1994, won a "convincing victory" with 82.6 percent of the votes - a number Milinkevich called "monstrously inflated."

Lukashenko scorned the opposition, saying voters had shown "who's the boss" in Belarus. "The revolution that was talked about so much ... has failed," he told a nationally televised news conference. He asserted that Sunday's protest leaders were in the pay of Western ambassadors and claimed there was no crackdown because the opposition is weak.

"Who was there to fight with? Nobody, understand? That's why we gave them the opportunity to show themselves, even though it was illegal."

But the observer mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Monday that the election did not meet standards for a free and fair vote. "Arbitrary use of state power and widespread detentions showed a disregard for the basic rights of freedom of assembly, association and expression," it said.

The EU threatened diplomatic and financial sanctions against Belarus' leaders, notably a wider travel ban.

Lukashenko said Monday he was "not afraid of further isolation." He added: "If the EU wants problems here, it will have them." - The Associated Press

Belarus: Missing Opposition Figure Is Found

Alyaksandr Kazulin (file photo) (RFE/RL)

Missing Belarusian opposition leader Alyaksandr Kazulin has been located in a detention facility outside Minsk, as many protesters remain in jail a day after clashing with police in the capital. The demonstrators accuse President Alyaksandr Lukashenka of stealing the March 19 presidential elections. The European Union and the United States, which have criticized the vote as unfair, are now demanding Kazulin's release.

PRAGUE, March 26, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Scores of Belarusian opposition activists were still in jail a day after police dispersed a rally in Minsk.

However, the whereabouts of the country's second-leading opposition figure, Alyaksandr Kazulin, are now known, after his wife said earlier that she did not know his whereabouts.

A spokesman for Kazulin, Ilya Rassolov, told RFE/RL's Russian Service today that Kazulin was detained in the town of Zhodina, about 50 kilometers east of the capital, Minsk.

"A case was opened under Article 339 for hooliganism," Rassolov said. "[Kazulin] will meet a lawyer only tomorrow. The case is led by an investigator from Minsk, although Zhodina is outside of Minsk. We were told that Kazulin is not complaining about his health. However, we are going to demand a medical examination because there are some doubts. Our main task now is to establish contact with him."

Kazulin was arrested on March 25 as he was leading protesters to the Akrestsina detention center in Minsk to demand the release of demonstrators held over the past few days. Belarusian Interior Minister Uladzimir Navumou said Kazulin was arrested because he called on people to attack state installations.

Rally Ends Peacefully

The incident occurred just after a large opposition rally ended peacefully in central Yanka Kupala Square to demand the outcome of the March 19 presidential poll be annulled.

Last week saw daily protests, led by opposition leader Alyaksandr Milinkevich, on Minsk's October (Kastrychnitskaya) Square. Security forces cleared the square on March 24, arresting scores of protesters.

International Sanctions

The same day, U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli urged the international community to put pressure on Belarus's authorities.

"The United States and the European Union remain united in our response to the situation in Belarus," he said in Washington. "We urge all members of the international community to demand that Belarusian authorities respect the rights of their citizens to express themselves peacefully and to condemn any and all abuses."

The European Union and the United States have demanded Kazulin's release. Austria, which currently holds the EU presidency, said in a statement issued late on March 25 that it was "appalled" by the violence used against demonstrators by the Belarusian authorities.

Following the elections, the EU and the United States announced plans to sanction Lukashenka's regime due to violations of international electoral standards.

The Belarusian government insists the polls were fair. 0- rferl.org

EU urges Belarus to free march leader

26/03/2006 - The EU called on its European partners today to protest at Belarusian violence against demonstrators and the detention of opposition leader Alexander Kozulin.

Austria, which holds the EU presidency, said it was "appalled by the violence used against demonstrators by the Belarusian authorities". It also demanded the immediate release of Kozulin and other opposition members, and called for international solidarity. Austria "urges the international partners of the EU, and in particular Belarus' other neighbours, to follow the same approach towards Belarus". Human rights group Vasnya said more than 100 people were detained on Saturday in connection with a series of protest marches.

Kozulin was detained on Saturday as protesters heeded his call to march to a jail that was holding others who were detained during an unprecedented week of daily protests in the tightly controlled ex-Soviet republic.

Initial reports indicated Kozulin may have been beaten, but his wife Irina said "the condition of his health is OK".

The protests were set off by the March 19 elections that gave authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko a third term. The opposition contends the voting was fraudulent and international observers said the elections fell far short of democratic norms, with problems including harassment of opposition candidates and distorted coverage by state-dominated mass media.

Kozulin, who was one of three candidates running against Lukashenko, appears less popular among opposition forces than Alexander Milinkevich, who was the main candidate opposing Lukashenko.

Milinkevich on Saturday disapproved of Kozulin's call for the march to the jail, saying it unnecessarily provoked police.

Today, without mentioning him by name, he said: "Each politician must conduct predictable, foreseeable policies."

Earlier about 80 pro-Lukashenko youth activists picketed the US Embassy in Minsk for about an hour, shouting "Hands off Belarus". Russian news agencies said protesters also picketed Poland's Embassy.

Lukashenko and other officials contend the US and Western European countries are giving financial and moral support to opposition groups with the aim of provoking mass protests like those in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan - ex-Soviet republics like Belarus - that helped bring opposition leaders to power after elections regarded as fraudulent. - IOL

Strife on western fronts

27mar06 - VIOLENCE, bickering and and economic pressures are threatening to turn back the pro-Western tide in two former Russian states.

Voters in Ukraine headed to the polls overnight to choose a new parliament, the first electoral test for their bickering Orange Revolution leadership and the ex-Soviet state's new pro-Western drive. Today's election is the first since President Viktor Yushchenko took power in a popular uprising late 2004. The President needs his forces to gain a stable majority to continue reforms aimed at driving Ukraine towards membership of the European Union and NATO. But the widespread support that he enjoyed on taking office has slid as the economy slowed and the Orange Revolution team broke up amid mutual recriminations.

The party of Viktor Yanukovych, the Russia-friendly ex-premier who lost the Orange Revolution contest, is instead expected to get the most votes in today's poll. Mr Yanukovych has promised supporters stability if he is returned to power. Russia and the West, which wrangled over the bitter 2004 campaign, are once again keenly watching the ballot in this strategic country.

The Ukrainian poll comes in a period of regional uncertainty as the opposition in neighbouring Belarus faces off against that nation's authoritarian, pro-Russian ruler. President Alexander Lukashenkho was declared the overwhelming winner of a poll last week that critics said was rigged.

Riot police in Belarus beat protesters and arrested a prominent opposition leader after a peaceful weekend rally, as President Lukashenko dismissed his opponents as not ready to rule.

The violence erupted after a rally of up to 7000 people was called by top opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich.

Some of the crowd then tried to march on a prison where hundreds of opposition supporters have been jailed in the past week since Mr Lukashenko's re-election.

Lines of black-helmeted riot police were seen beating back protesters with their truncheons. At least one person was nursing a bloody head wound. Mr Lukashenko belittled the opposition as ineffective and inexperienced.

"They weren't ready to take power and I didn't believe they could," he said. - Herald Sun [AFP]

Orange Revolution Goes Through First Tough Election

By Mirza Cetinkaya, Yunus Erdogdu, Moscow, Kiev Published: Sunday, March 26, 2006 zaman.com

A judicious test awaits the Orange Revolution as the government in Ukraine will be going through a parliamentary election for the first time today since 2004.

Ukraine is prepared to consider the odds of forming a stand-alone government after the first parliamentary elections. Viktor Yuschenko, the revolutionary President of Ukraine, will face a challenge, whatever the election results happen to be, reporters said.

Ukraine is aiming to gain membership to the European Union as well as to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the medium run. There will be approximately 10,000 foreign monitors for today’s crucial test of democracy.

Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich could win 25-30 percent of the votes, becoming the winner of the elections. Yuschenko, the mastermind of the Orange Revolution, and Yulya Timashenko, the first lady of Revolution, are to have equal proportions of 20 percent of votes to come out second or third in the polls, according to the recent public surveys.

None of the three parties are decorated with enough credentials to rule alone, a sign the a coalition government will be formed.

The limit was set to three percent for Yuschenko’s Our Ukraine Bloc, Timashenko’s Byut Bloc, and Yanukovich’s Regions Party, aside from two or three other small-scale parties, to win a place in the 450-seat parliament.

Business circles support “Yuschenko-Yanukovic” coalition

A possible Yuschenko-Yanukovic coalition, will pave the way for presidency for the female politician Timoshenko in the next elections. President of Kiev Political Evaluations Center, Oles Doniy told big business circles are in favor of a Yuschenko-Yanukovic coalition as they do not want to damage the stability. On the other side, sociologist Viktor Nebojenko say that the government may go out of Yuschenko’s control, which will be shaken by economic and political turbulences after the elections.

On the contrary to the presidential elections, which resulted in the orange revolution, the public is lacking “enthusiasm and hope”. Yet, the revolution supporters who were disappointed by the orange revolution, seem not to have changed their sides against pro-Russian Yanukovic. In his last statement before the presidential elections,” This will be an election between the past and future. You must go to the ballots and cast your vote in favor of democratic forces,” told Yuschenko to the public. On the other side, Yanukovic defended that the Yuschenko government deceived the public and caused the country to experience big troubles.

Russia-backed opposition set for Ukraine comeback

KIEV, March 26 (Reuters) - Ukraine voted on Sunday in a crucial election that seemed certain to see a resurgence of Russia-backed forces and mark a step back from the pro-West ideals that piloted the “Orange Revolution” liberals to power.

As he cast his ballot on Sunday, sporting a bright orange tie, President Viktor Yushchenko said talks would start immediately after the election to form a government restoring the shattered coalition of liberal parties that backed the heady street protests of December 2004.

“Tomorrow we start consultations with political forces which made up the coalition which was victorious in the Orange Revolution,” he said.

But he was aware that much depended on the outcome and that disillusionment over his record has left his Moscow-backed rival, Viktor Yanukovich, poised to bounce back on the political scene.

Pre-poll surveys say Yanukovich’s Regions Party is sure to grab the biggest share of the vote. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party is second with the bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, his one-time ally, in third place.

Though his own job is not in the balance, if the Regions Party makes strong gains Yushchenko will probably have to reach an understanding with the man he humiliated in a presidential poll re-run in late 2004.

Yanukovich, beaming, said little as he voted, but was clearly confident. “There will be a victory,” he said.

The parliament will for the first time have powers to appoint the prime minister, steward of Ukraine’s rocky economy.

At stake is the fate of a country of 47 million, whose “Orange” leaders have been unable to deliver on promises after prising Ukraine loose from centuries of Russian domination and setting it on a course for joining the European mainstream.

OPTIMISM GONE

Optimism, generated by the turfing out of the pro-Moscow old guard, has evaporated amid slow growth and infighting.

Though Ukrainians now enjoy total freedom of expression, monthly wages stand at only $150. Prices fluctuate erratically.

A maddening bureaucracy dating from Soviet times, frustrates activities like drawing pensions and getting medical care. Western investors are wary of uncertain stability. Ties with Russia remain unsteady. A New Year deal pushed gas prices sharply higher, ending a confrontation which briefly cut supplies to Ukraine -- and Moscow’s European customers.

Forty-five parties are running, but polls show only five to seven will clear 3 percent to enter the 450-seat assembly. Queues built up at many polling stations as officials went to great lengths to check for fraud, and voters juggled with outsized ballot papers, measuring 80 cms (2 1/2 feet) in length.

“I came here to vote and I will stand here for as long as it takes to cast my vote,” said pensioner Anna Petrovna.

Gennady, 48, saw the queue and left. “I’ll come back later when the crowd has gone down,” he said. Polls close at 1900 GMT.

The only certainty is that a coalition will be needed. Weeks, maybe months, of back-room bargaining lie ahead.

Not only is Yushchenko threatened by the political comeback of his old nemesis. He is also weakened by constitutional reform that has trimmed his powers and extended those of parliament. Infighting in the Orange camp prompted Yushchenko to sack the charismatic Tymoshenko as prime minister last September, further tarnishing the image of the liberal leadership.

COALITION DANGERS

Yushchenko faces the knowledge that he may have to team up with his old adversary, Yanukovich, or make up with Tymoshenko. Either marriage of convenience carries dangers.

A “grand coalition” with Yanukovich’s party could require concessions such as sacrificing pro-Western advocates like Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk. His power base might also be eroded.

But patching up with Tymoshenko also comes at a high price. She would like her job of premier back, a difficult step given her interventionist views and Yushchenko’s free market values. Tymoshenko, virulent in denouncing any move to link “Orange” forces with Yanukovich, said after voting in the central city of Dnipropetrovsk: “Ukraine has a perfect chance to have a perfect government and we will do everything for this.” - ft.com